Our model gives Vitebsk a 28% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 42% for Torpedo BelAZ.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vitebsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Torpedo BelAZ have done so in 0 of their last 1.