Our model gives Toluca a 75% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Santos Laguna.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Toluca have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Santos Laguna have done so in 1 of their last 2.