Our model gives Tepatitlán de Morelos a 52% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Mineros de Zacatecas.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tepatitlán de Morelos have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Mineros de Zacatecas have done so in 4 of their last 4.