Our model gives Tacoma Defiance a 45% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Portland Timbers II.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tacoma Defiance have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Portland Timbers II have done so in 1 of their last 3.