Our model gives Sturm Graz a 33% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 43% for Rennes.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sturm Graz have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 5.