Our model gives Stafford Rangers a 33% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 45% for Hereford.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stafford Rangers have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Hereford have done so in 1 of their last 2.