Our model gives Sporting Cristal a 70% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Atlético Grau.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sporting Cristal have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Atlético Grau have done so in 0 of their last 4.