Our model gives Sporting CP a 73% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Arouca.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sporting CP have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Arouca have done so in 0 of their last 1.