Our model gives Smorgon a 26% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 51% for Niva.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Smorgon have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Niva have done so in 4 of their last 5.