Our model gives Sligo Rovers a 17% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 61% for St Patrick's.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sligo Rovers have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and St Patrick's have done so in 1 of their last 2.