Our model gives Santo Domingo a 45% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 24% for El Nacional.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santo Domingo have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and El Nacional have done so in 1 of their last 3.