Our model gives Santa Clara a 28% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 42% for Sporting Braga.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Santa Clara have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Sporting Braga have done so in 2 of their last 4.