Our model gives Rodina Moskva a 32% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 40% for Rubin Kazan.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rodina Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Rubin Kazan have done so in 3 of their last 5.