Our model gives Puskás a 24% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 53% for Honvéd.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Puskás have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Honvéd have done so in 3 of their last 4.