Our model gives Porto a 40% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Benfica.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Porto have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Benfica have done so in 3 of their last 4.