Our model gives Piteå a 30% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 48% for Umeå.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Piteå have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Umeå have done so in 1 of their last 3.