Our model gives Pau a 40% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Dunkerque.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pau have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Dunkerque have done so in 2 of their last 2.