Our model gives Patriotas Boyacá a 51% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Unión Magdalena.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Patriotas Boyacá have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Unión Magdalena have done so in 0 of their last 3.