Our model gives Once Caldas a 47% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Deportes Tolima.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Once Caldas have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Deportes Tolima have done so in 5 of their last 5.