Our model gives Noah a 89% chance to win this one, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Van.

Both teams are projected to score in 32% of simulations, against 68% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Noah have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Van have done so in 2 of their last 3.