Our model gives New England a 41% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Orlando City.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, New England have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Orlando City have done so in 1 of their last 2.