Our model gives Neuchâtel Xamax a 42% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Rapperswil-Jona.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Neuchâtel Xamax have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Rapperswil-Jona have done so in 2 of their last 3.