Our model gives Nacional Asunción a 39% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 31% for 2 de Mayo.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Nacional Asunción have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and 2 de Mayo have done so in 2 of their last 4.