Our model gives Morelia a 51% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Universidad Guadalajara.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Morelia have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Universidad Guadalajara have done so in 2 of their last 3.