Our model gives Morecambe a 47% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Southport.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Morecambe have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Southport have done so in 1 of their last 2.