Our model gives Molde a 56% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Aalesund.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Molde have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Aalesund have done so in 1 of their last 3.