Our model gives Metso a 65% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 20% for Vaajakoski / Reds.

Both teams are projected to score in 71% of simulations, against 29% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 85% likelihood against 15% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Metso have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Vaajakoski / Reds have done so in 3 of their last 3.