Our model gives Merthyr Town a 51% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Truro City.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Merthyr Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Truro City have done so in 0 of their last 2.