Our model gives Melgar a 68% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Sport Boys.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Melgar have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Sport Boys have done so in 0 of their last 3.