Our model gives Malacateco a 77% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Mixco.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Malacateco have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Mixco have done so in 0 of their last 3.