Our model gives Luján a 52% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Atlas.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Luján have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Atlas have done so in 0 of their last 4.