Our model gives Liepāja a 48% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 29% for FC Daugavpils.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Liepāja have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and FC Daugavpils have done so in 1 of their last 3.