Our model gives Lexington a 58% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Orange County.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lexington have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Orange County have done so in 2 of their last 3.