Our model gives Leandro Nicéforo Alem a 34% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Mercedes.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Leandro Nicéforo Alem have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Mercedes have done so in 0 of their last 3.