Our model gives Las Vegas Lights a 42% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Hartford Athletic.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Las Vegas Lights have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Hartford Athletic have done so in 0 of their last 3.