Our model gives Kriens a 41% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 37% for Étoile Carouge.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kriens have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Étoile Carouge have done so in 0 of their last 2.