Our model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 24% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 50% for Karpaty.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kolos Kovalivka have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Karpaty have done so in 3 of their last 3.