Our model gives Kitchee a 35% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 40% for Gangwon.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gangwon have done so in 2 of their last 3.