Our model gives Kilmarnock a 27% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 47% for Hearts.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kilmarnock have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Hearts have done so in 3 of their last 5.