Our model gives Karpaty a 56% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Veres.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Karpaty have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Veres have done so in 1 of their last 3.