Our model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 39% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Legia Warszawa.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jagiellonia Białystok have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Legia Warszawa have done so in 2 of their last 3.