Our model gives Independiente II a 53% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Bocas.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente II have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Bocas have done so in 2 of their last 3.