Our model gives Houston Dynamo a 57% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Cincinnati.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Houston Dynamo have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Cincinnati have done so in 2 of their last 2.