Our model gives Hitchin Town a 40% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 39% for Leiston.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hitchin Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Leiston have done so in 2 of their last 3.