Our model gives Hednesford Town a 62% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 19% for Coventry United.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hednesford Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Coventry United have done so in 1 of their last 1.