Our model gives Hapoel Be'er Sheva a 32% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 45% for Dinamo Zagreb.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Hapoel Be'er Sheva have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Dinamo Zagreb have done so in 4 of their last 5.