Our model gives Hamrun Spartans a 63% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Marsaxlokk.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Marsaxlokk have done so in 0 of their last 1.