Our model gives Forde a 8% chance to win this one, against 9% for a draw and 83% for Aalesund.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Forde have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Aalesund have done so in 1 of their last 3.