Our model gives FarDu a 84% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 6% for Buxoro University.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, FarDu have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Buxoro University have done so in 3 of their last 4.