Our model gives Falkenberg a 42% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Östersunds FK.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Falkenberg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Östersunds FK have done so in 1 of their last 3.